In the last week of January, the Supreme Court began a four-week recess without having ruled on the legality of the Trump Administration’s 2025 tariffs, with its next scheduled session not taking place until February 20. That means that the future of the estimated $16 billion in monthly tariffs paid by US importers, which will total $170 billion by February 20, will remain uncertain for at least several more weeks.
As a result, importers still don’t know if the tariffs they have been paying will be refunded or not. Dealing with uncertainty and increased prices, they are being forced to plan for a range of scenarios when it comes to tariff policy, and supply chain platforms like Flexport have launched tools like Tariff Simulator and Tariff Refund Calculator to allow their customers to plan for a wide range of possible scenarios as US tariff policy continues to fluctuate.
But, so far, importers have not passed that pain on to consumers. Despite the friction that tariffs have introduced to the global supply chain, a year later, US retail prices have risen less than many originally anticipated, with the consumer price index rising 2.7% year-over-year in December 2025, down from a local peak of 9% in June 2022. This was also less than the 3.3% inflation rate seen in December 2024, the month before President Trump took office. Meanwhile, the US government collected an estimated $287 billion in customs duties in 2025, tripling revenue from 2024.
*For more, see our recently updated memo on Flexport.*
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