Uber has partnered with Rivian to build robotaxis based on Rivian’s upcoming R2 SUV in a deal worth up to $1.25 billion, starting with a $300 million investment and an initial order of 10K vehicles. The fleet is planned to launch in San Francisco and Miami in 2028 and expand to 25 cities across the US, Canada, and Europe by 2031, exclusively on Uber’s network. However, it comes with significant risk: Rivian hasn’t begun R2 production yet, has no robotaxi-ready self-driving system deployed, and the planned Georgia factory is still under construction. Nevertheless, the deal adds to Uber’s already diversified portfolio of robotaxi partnerships, which includes Waymo, Lucid/Nuro, Motional, and Baidu.
Whether this bet is a good one for Uber is another question. It is the fourth in a string of deals Rivian has made before reaching profitability, with the others being $1.3 billion in equity and 100K vans for Amazon, a $5.8 billion joint venture with Volkswagen Group, and a $6.6 billion loan from the Department of Energy. The company’s existing “Universal Hands-Free” system reminds users that it “will not stop or slow down for traffic lights or stop signs”; the R&D required to go from this to true self-driving is likely to put the company in an even deeper financial hole.
Important Disclosures
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and Contrary LLC (Contrary LLC, together with its affiliates, “Contrary”) makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
The information herein is based on Contrary beliefs, as well as certain assumptions regarding future events based on information available to Contrary on a formal and informal basis as of the date of this publication. The material may include projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations. Past performance of a company is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein will be realized. Actual experience may not reflect all of these opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary.
Contrary shall have no responsibility for: (i) determining that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein is suitable for any particular reader; (ii) monitoring whether any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein continues to be suitable for any reader; or (iii) tailoring any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein to any particular reader’s objectives, guidelines, or restrictions. Receipt of this material does not, by itself, imply that Contrary has an advisory agreement, oral or otherwise, with any reader.
Contrary is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The registration of Contrary in no way implies a certain level of skill or expertise or that the SEC has endorsed Contrary. Investment decisions for Contrary clients are made by Contrary. Please note that, although Contrary manages assets on behalf of Contrary clients, Contrary clients may take any position (whether positive or negative) with respect to the company described in this material. The information provided in this material does not represent any investment strategy that Contrary manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, company or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this material, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security of the company discussed in this presentation.
Please see www.contrary.com/legal for additional important information.