When Project Stargate was announced by the White House and OpenAI in January 2025, it was expected to invest $500 billion over the next four years to build data centers both in the US and around the world, including announcements of developments throughout 2025 in the UAE, Norway, the UK, Argentina, and South Korea. Less than a year later, the plans for these data centers are beginning to unravel.
A troubling pattern is emerging. In March this year, OpenAI and Oracle scrapped plans to expand the Stargate site in Abilene, TX, reportedly because OpenAI wanted to use only SOTA Rubin chips in the facilities. Earlier this month, OpenAI announced it was “pausing” development on the UK Stargate data center, and claimed “regulation and the cost of energy” were impediments to moving forward. Not long after, OpenAI reportedly changed its plans to develop a data center in Norway, handing the reins of the project to Microsoft and planning to rent compute from them instead of operating the data center itself.
What will happen to the remaining Argentina and UAE Stargate sites (the latter of which has been threatened by the Iranian military) remains to be seen, but as questions about OpenAI continue to mount, the evaporation of OpenAI’s data center projects is only adding fuel to the fire.
Important Disclosures
This material has been distributed solely for informational and educational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or to participate in any trading strategy. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable, but accuracy, adequacy, or completeness cannot be guaranteed, and Contrary LLC (Contrary LLC, together with its affiliates, “Contrary”) makes no representation as to its accuracy, adequacy, or completeness.
The information herein is based on Contrary beliefs, as well as certain assumptions regarding future events based on information available to Contrary on a formal and informal basis as of the date of this publication. The material may include projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations. Past performance of a company is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein will be realized. Actual experience may not reflect all of these opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary.
Contrary shall have no responsibility for: (i) determining that any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein is suitable for any particular reader; (ii) monitoring whether any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein continues to be suitable for any reader; or (iii) tailoring any opinions, forecasts, projections, risk assumptions, or commentary discussed herein to any particular reader’s objectives, guidelines, or restrictions. Receipt of this material does not, by itself, imply that Contrary has an advisory agreement, oral or otherwise, with any reader.
Contrary is registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission as an investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The registration of Contrary in no way implies a certain level of skill or expertise or that the SEC has endorsed Contrary. Investment decisions for Contrary clients are made by Contrary. Please note that, although Contrary manages assets on behalf of Contrary clients, Contrary clients may take any position (whether positive or negative) with respect to the company described in this material. The information provided in this material does not represent any investment strategy that Contrary manages on behalf of, or recommends to, its clients.
Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, company or product made reference to directly or indirectly in this material, will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated performance level(s), or be suitable for your portfolio. Due to rapidly changing market conditions and the complexity of investment decisions, supplemental information and other sources may be required to make informed investment decisions based on your individual investment objectives and suitability specifications. All expressions of opinions are subject to change without notice. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any security of the company discussed in this presentation.
Please see www.contrary.com/legal for additional important information.