US solar generation surpassed coal for the first time last month, supplying 12.8% of national electricity to coal’s 12.2%. In doing so, it became the third-largest source of electricity in the US, behind natural gas and nuclear. The milestone comes after two decades of roughly flat US electricity demand, which is now rising again due to AI, manufacturing, and electrification. Solar’s surge accounts for almost all the net new energy supply in the country; solar and battery storage made up 91% of all new US generating capacity in the first quarter of 2026.
The story of solar growth in the US reflects a global pattern that has been building for decades. Solar photovoltaic costs have fallen 90% over the last decade alone, following a remarkably consistent pattern known as Wright’s Law, which states that every time global cumulative solar capacity doubles, costs fall by roughly 20%. Global solar generation has grown from a negligible amount before 2010 to nearly 2,800 TWh in 2025, roughly tenfold in 15 years, with China alone now generating over 1,100 TWh. The cumulative effect over four decades has taken solar from one of the most expensive sources of electricity to the cheapest in many markets.
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